Expected snow totals and confidence in the forecast continues to increase as the weekend nears. The National Weather Service has also issued a Winter Storm Watch for our area beginning Friday.
A weather system developing along the East Coast will bring this round of snow. Updated forecasts today show Greene County currently has about a 75% chance of receiving more than three inches of snow. Totals through Sunday show that we could see 4-6″ down in the valley, with 6-8″ in the mountains. The system is also expected to dump snow along the I-81 corridor in Virginia.
The National Weather Service Office in Morristown has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our area from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night. Heavy snow they say is possible with total snow accumulations between 3 and 7″ possible.
Forecasters say the storm is expected to form over the Atlantic Ocean and could intensify rapidly into what is known as a bomb cyclone, a powerful storm system that strengthens quickly. If that occurs, it could evolve into a nor’easter capable of producing several inches of snow from the Carolinas to New England.
The western edge of the storm is expected to extend into the Tennessee Valley and portions of Virginia and West Virginia. Snow could begin developing Friday afternoon, with the greatest snowfall potential expected to remain east of Knoxville. Significant accumulation is possible in the mountains, with accumulating snow also possible across parts of East Tennessee.
Regardless of snowfall amounts, very cold conditions are expected. An arctic air mass moving into the region is forecast to bring dangerous wind chills near or below zero Saturday and Sunday, with wind chills ranging from 10 to 20 degrees below zero in the higher elevations. Overnight low temperatures this weekend are expected to fall into the single digits.
Residents are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as details become clearer in the coming days.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-Including the cities of South Holston Dam, Elkmont, Mooresburg, Hansonville, Bybee, Abingdon, Rosedale, Benhams, Pardee, Citico, Greeneville, Norton, Big Stone Gap, Hartford, Doeville, Shady Valley, Mountain City, Dye, Hampton, Coker Creek, Limestone Cove, Wise, Hiltons, Kingsport, Gatlinburg, Erwin, Appalachia, Honaker, Unicoi, Newport, Neva, Bristol TN, Laurel Bloomery, Bristol VA, Coeburn, Castlewood, Cedar Creek, Elizabethton, Cades Cove, Trade, Johnson City, and Lebanon
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
* WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches possible. Winds in the mountains could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE…Portions of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
* WHEN…From Friday afternoon through late Saturday night.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.
DISCUSSION…
Issued at 1248 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered to our northeast with high pressure generally in place across the eastern U.S. A weak shortwave and surface low are ejecting into the Great Plains. This will keep the region in a northwesterly flow pattern aloft with below normal temperatures and dry conditions through the day. Later today and into the overnight period, the weak low will track towards the Gulf with another more pronounced shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region. An Arctic high will also track towards the northern U.S. With this will come another surge of extremely cold air, as cold or colder than what has been seen.
During the day on Friday, increasing moisture and height falls will bring an area of light snow into the region from the northwest. Also, focus will turn towards the system along the Gulf, which will move into the Atlantic and rapidly strengthen into the weekend. This will intensify coverage and intensity of snowfall later on Friday into Saturday. With very cold thermal profiles, snow ratios will be much higher than a lot of events we see, likely 15:1 or greater. Confidence in higher snow totals remains in eastern portions of the region in closer proximity to the Atlantic system as it strengthens. Based on the latest model guidance, the Knoxville area and Interstate 75 northward seem to delineate confidence in more significant snowfall totals with increasing likelihood of at least 3 inches. For the mountains, far East Tennessee, and southwest Virginia, probabilities for 4 to 6 inches range anywhere from 20 to 40 percent as snow will linger more into Saturday evening. With temperatures far below freezing area-wide, snow will accumulate on any and every surface as it won`t be the west snow often seen.
Aside from the snowfall, the extreme nature of cold temperatures will be another concern during this time. By Saturday night, high pressure will remain to our west, keeping a strong MSLP gradient and breezy winds with 850mb to -18 Celsius, near record low for this time of year. Below 0 wind chills are likely, especially in the higher elevations. This will continue through the day on Sunday with better radiational cooling conditions Sunday night as the surface high becomes centered just to our southwest. Places that have snowpack could see temperatures drop to near or even below 0.
During the day on Monday, winds will shift to be more southerly as high pressure moves further east towards Florida. As troughing shifts off to our east, height rises will help temperatures rise back above freezing but still below normal. Further height rises are expected by Tuesday with the flow becoming more zonal. This will bring temperatures back closer to normal. Another trough will approach from the west, bringing a return in precip chances by Wednesday. By this time, however, low-level temperatures will have warmed enough for predominantly rain.
