The Nolichucky River crested just below the “action stage” Thursday afternoon, which may highlight how much the river has changed. The original forecast had the river rising by almost three more feet. A combination of less rainfall and changed river conditions may have affected the actual rise. No additional damage to property along the river was reported.
The National Weather Service had expected the river to crest at 11.5 feet, just six inches below minor flood stage. But by midday, the gauge at Embreeville had leveled off at just over 8.5 feet.
High water levels were seen on both the French Broad and Pigeon Rivers in Cocke County, which also collect runoff from a large portion of North Carolina. The Pigeon, which flows through downtown Newport, rose to just above major flood stage at 12 feet. The French Broad crested just below minor flood stage at 9.3 feet. Neither of those rivers caused any damage to property. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Warning for the Pigeon River until 1:00 AM Friday.
The rains pushed the river to its highest mark since the floods of Hurricane Helene, when the river was estimated to have crested at just under 34 feet. Prior to that, the highest the river had ever been measured was 24′ in 1901. The recent forecast was based on the amount of rain in the watershed, but also on the depth, width, and contour of the river – all of which changed dramatically last fall. Heather Sipe, EMA Director, said that the action and flood stages for the river may not be the same as they were before the flood Those water marks will be assessed by the National Weather Service for better future forecasting. Until those new guidelines are established, the NWS will issue statements and forecasts based on prior measurements.
Helene’s floods altered the riverbanks, islands, and surrounding vegetation, prompting officials to closely monitor how the rising water behaves. Historically, high water takes about 24 hours to travel from the Embreeville gauge through Greene County. However, during a minor rain event in January, the crest moved downstream much faster, reaching the Greeneville water intake plant in just a few hours.
Historic Crests
| 1. | 33.88 ft | on 09-27-2024 |
| 2. | 24.00 ft | on 05-21-1901 |
| 3. | 21.52 ft | on 11-06-1977 |
| 4. | 18.57 ft | on 08-13-1940 |
| 5. | 15.55 ft | on 09-17-2004 |
| 6. | 15.53 ft | on 01-15-1995 |
| 7. | 14.92 ft | on 09-08-2004 |
| 8. | 13.85 ft | on 08-16-1928 |
| 9. | 13.45 ft | on 01-08-1998 |
| 10. | 12.76 ft | on 03-12-1963 |
| 11. | 11.63 ft | on 08-17-1994 |
| 12. | 11.62 ft | on 04-19-2019 |
| 13. | 11.59 ft | on 03-26-1965 |
| 14. | 11.52 ft | on 02-13-1966 |
| 15. | 11.50 ft | on 08-03-1921 |
| 16. | 11.48 ft | on 08-18-2021 |
| 17. | 11.05 ft | on 06-21-1972 |
| 18. | 11.00 ft | on 04-05-1957 |
| 19. | 10.87 ft | on 05-06-2013 |
| 20. | 10.71 ft | on 06-16-1949 |
| 21. | 10.69 ft | on 03-26-1935 |
| 22. | 10.60 ft | on 04-05-1977 |
| 23. | 10.55 ft | on 10-22-1929 |
| 24. | 10.30 ft | on 07-15-1934 |
| 25. | 10.28 ft | on 05-30-2018 |
| 26. | 10.27 ft | on 01-19-1996 |
| 27. | 10.08 ft | on 11-20-2003 |
| 28. | 10.02 ft | on 04-13-2020 |
| 29. | 10.01 ft | on 03-17-1973 |
| 30. | 9.50 ft | on 12-03-1991 |
| 31. | 9.30 ft | on 03-17-1990 |
| 32. | 9.29 ft | on 05-07-1984 |
| 33. | 9.27 ft | on 09-22-1989 |
| 34. | 9.19 ft | on 01-27-1996 |
| 35. | 9.19 ft | on 07-04-2013 |
| 36. | 9.06 ft | on 01-31-2013 |
| 37. | 9.01 ft | on 10-15-2014 |
| 38. | 8.96 ft | on 02-02-1983 |
| 39. | 8.95 ft | on 10-23-2017 |
| 40. | 8.81 ft | on 09-17-2018 |
| 41. | 8.74 ft | on 01-09-2024 |
| 42. | 8.69 ft | on 12-02-2015 |
| 43. | 8.00 ft | on 04-21-1992 |
| 44. | 7.89 ft | on 02-03-1982 |
| 45. | 7.83 ft | on 03-01-1987 |
