The National Weather Service is predicting that the Nolichuckey River may crest at 15.5 feet early Saturday. That would put the river just below Moderate Flood Stage and would be the highest the river has been since the rains of hurricanes Frances and Ivan impacted our area in 2004.
The river had reached just over 9′ at the official measuring station in Unicoi County on Thursday. The river had risen because of the heavy rains from a stalled cold front that dropped over 6″ of rain in parts of the drainage area.
Hurricance Helene is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle later Thursday and bring torrential rains to the area overnight and into Friday. Some parts of western North Carolina could get 8-12″ of rain, all of which drains into the Nolichuckey. Those rains, coupled with the existing runoff, could put the river at it sixth highest stage since records have been kept back to the early 1900s.
The highest the river has been recorded was the floods of 1901 when the river reached 24′. In 1977, the river peaked at 21.52′, which was the year many of the bridges across the river were washed away.
The forecast is subject to change, and the river crest could be higher or lower depending on the exact track of the rains. Stay tuned this weekend for more details.
Historic Crests from the National Weather Service
| 1. | 24.00 ft | on 05-21-1901 |
| 2. | 21.52 ft | on 11-06-1977 |
| 3. | 18.57 ft | on 08-13-1940 |
| 4. | 15.55 ft | on 09-17-2004 |
| 5. | 15.53 ft | on 01-15-1995 |
| 6. | 14.92 ft | on 09-08-2004 |
| 7. | 13.85 ft | on 08-16-1928 |
| 8. | 13.45 ft | on 01-08-1998 |
| 9. | 12.76 ft | on 03-12-1963 |
| 10. | 11.63 ft | on 08-17-1994 |
| 11. | 11.62 ft | on 04-19-2019 |
| 12. | 11.59 ft | on 03-26-1965 |
| 13. | 11.52 ft | on 02-13-1966 |
| 14. | 11.50 ft | on 08-03-1921 |
| 15. | 11.48 ft | on 08-18-2021 |
| 16. | 11.05 ft | on 06-21-1972 |
| 17. | 11.00 ft | on 04-05-1957 |
| 18. | 10.87 ft | on 05-06-2013 |
| 19. | 10.71 ft | on 06-16-1949 |
| 20. | 10.69 ft | on 03-26-1935 |
| 21. | 10.60 ft | on 04-05-1977 |
| 22. | 10.55 ft | on 10-22-1929 |
| 23. | 10.30 ft | on 07-15-1934 |
| 24. | 10.28 ft | on 05-30-2018 |
| 25. | 10.27 ft | on 01-19-1996 |
| 26. | 10.08 ft | on 11-20-2003 |
| 27. | 10.02 ft | on 04-13-2020 |
| 28. | 10.01 ft | on 03-17-1973 |
| 29. | 9.50 ft | on 12-03-1991 |
| 30. | 9.30 ft | on 03-17-1990 |
| 31. | 9.29 ft | on 05-07-1984 |
| 32. | 9.27 ft | on 09-22-1989 |
| 33. | 9.19 ft | on 07-04-2013 |
| 34. | 9.19 ft | on 01-27-1996 |
| 35. | 9.06 ft | on 01-31-2013 |
| 36. | 9.01 ft | on 10-15-2014 |
| 37. | 8.96 ft | on 02-02-1983 |
| 38. | 8.95 ft | on 10-23-2017 |
| 39. | 8.81 ft | on 09-17-2018 |
| 40. | 8.74 ft | on 01-09-2024 |
| 41. | 8.69 ft | on 12-02-2015 |
| 42. | 8.00 ft | on 04-21-1992 |
| 43. | 7.89 ft | on 02-03-1982 |
| 44. | 7.83 ft | on 03-01-1987 |
